Nuggets aim to stay hot vs. Raptors
Basketball Betting Lines
01/27/2012 -
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The streaking Denver Nuggets aim for a sixth straight win
tonight when they host a Toronto team that expects to be without leading
scorer Andrea Bargnani.
The Nuggets are fresh off a brilliant 5-0 road trip that was capped with a
122-93 blowout win in Sacramento on Wednesday. Danilo Gallinari led seven
players in double figures with 23 points in that one as Denver recorded its
first perfect five-game trek since joining the NBA prior to the 1976-77
season.
Gallinari, who signed a contract extension earlier Wednesday, went 8-of-12
from the field and added five assists. Nene notched 16 points and Andre Miller
had 15 and 10 assists.
"We made a point not to settle for jumpers because that is a team that's
struggling defensively with their identity," said Nuggets forward Al
Harrington. "There were so many open things, so we just tried to pick one of
them and really attack and that was the rim."
Denver's ultra-quick point guard Ty Lawson left in the second quarter against
the Kings after spraining his left ankle and is expected to miss tonight's
game. He hopes to return Sunday against the LA Clippers.
Denver, which is 6-2 at the Pepsi Center this season, will finish a quick two-
game homestand against the Clips.
The Raptors, meanwhile, are coming off back-to-back impressive road wins.
Toronto improved to 2-1 on a five-game trek on Wednesday when Bargnani and
Linas Kleiza, an ex-Nugget, scored 25 points apiece as the Raptors snapped a
12-game losing streak against the Utah Jazz with a 111-106 win in double-
overtime.
It was Toronto's first win in the series since December 22, 2004.
Bargnani, who played his second game after missing the previous six with a
strained calf, scored all of his points in regulation. He played 3:55 in the
first overtime before sitting the rest of the game after aggravating the
injury, however.
"This time it's bad," Bargnani, who is averaging 23.5 ppg this season, said.
"I'm pretty sure I'm going to be out for a while."
Jose Calderon knocked down a three-pointer with 13.3 seconds remaining in
regulation for Toronto, tying the game, while Paul Millsap buried a three with
3.0 seconds left in the first overtime to knot the contest for Utah.
The back-breaker in the second overtime was Calderon's three-pointer from 10
feet behind the arc to beat the shot clock, giving Toronto a six-point lead
with 86 seconds left.
It was the second time in two days that the Raptors snapped a long losing
streak to another team. They beat Phoenix, 99-96, in Bargnani's return on
Tuesday for their first win over the Suns since February 10, 2004.
DeMar DeRozan scored 17 for Toronto, Leandro Barbosa added 13 and Calderon had
12.
"Everybody that got on the court tonight contributed and fought to win a
double-overtime game," said Raptors coach Dwane Casey.
Toronto, which has lost eight straight and 13 of 14 vs. Denver, hasn't won
three consecutive on the road since Dec. 11-18, 2007. The Raptors have dropped
seven in a row and nine of 10 contests in the Rockies.
<< Blazers welcome Suns to Rip City
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Blazers haven't been much of a threat away from Rip
City this season but things have been far different when they are hitting the
hardwood in the Pacific Northwest.
Portland will shoot for its sixth straight win a
<< Thunder, Warriors collide in Oakland
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Western Conference-leading Thunder will kick off a
three-game road trip tonight when they visit Oakland to take on the Golden
State Warriors.
The Thunder (15-3) won their third straight game and for the 11th
<< Improved Pacers try to pass another test in Boston
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Indiana Pacers try to follow up their biggest win of
the season tonight when they head to Boston to face the Celtics at TD Garden.
Indiana picked up a big win over the Eastern Conference-leading Chicago Bulls
on Wednes
<< Magic try to rebound against Hornets
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For three quarters last night it appeared the Orlando Magic
had erased all the memories of their worst shooting performance in franchise
history in a rematch with the Boston Celtics.
But a lousy final period sent the Magic
<< Wizards try to pick up road victory in Houston
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Washington Wizards have had trouble the past two
seasons playing well on the road and look to avoid an 0-8 start as the guest
tonight against the Houston Rockets at the Toyota Center.
The Wizards will play two straight
Mavs hope to rebound with Jazz in town >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Celebrations don't seem to be agreeing with the Dallas
Mavericks and the reigning NBA champs are probably glad they can put the
ceremonies in the rearview mirror as they get ready to host the Utah Jazz.
The Mav
Cavs and Nets meet at The Q >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New Jersey Nets have yet to win consecutive games this
season. The Cleveland Cavaliers have done it just once.
Both teams will be trying to put together win streaks this evening at Quicken
Loans Arena.
The Nets have
Bogut-less Bucks visit Bulls >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It has been a season of frustration for Bucks center Andrew
Bogut and his latest setback will keep him out of action indefinitely. That
leaves Milwaukee a big hole in the middle this evening as it visits a Chicago
Bulls club
Wolves welcome Spurs to the Twin Cities >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Timberwolves were able to snap a 16-game
losing streak to the San Antonio Spurs when the two clubs met in early January
and shoot for a rare win streak in the series tonight at the Target Center.
The Timberwo
Sixers try to bounce back vs. bumbling Bobcats >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia 76ers try to bounce back from a rare loss
at home this evening when they welcome the hapless Charlotte Bobcats to the
Wells Fargo Center.
Philadelphia lost for only the second time in 10 tries in front of
MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined
Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.
"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."
Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)
According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.
As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).
Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.
Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at
17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.
*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007
New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers
By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.
"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."
While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."
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Sportsbooks to bet on football
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
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