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Local rivals duke it out in Durham

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/16/2012 - Durham, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NC State Wolfpack will try to pick up a crucial victory tonight as they make the short trip to Cameron Indoor Stadium to battle the fifth-ranked Duke Blue Devils in an Atlantic Coast Conference battle.

Duke and NC State have met 235 times heading into tonight as the series dates back to 1912. The Blue Devils lead the all-time series 138-97, including a 46-23 mark at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Duke has won two straight and five of the last six in the rivalry. NC State has lost in its last 13 visits to Durham, and has been outscored by an average of 18.2 ppg during that span.

Mark Gottfried has done a remarkable job in his first season at the helm in Raleigh, as he has led the Wolfpack to an 18-7 overall record and a 7-3 mark in ACC action. NC State is trailing the conference leading North Carolina Tar Heels by 1.5 games, and would be tied for second place in the standings if it pulls off the upset today. The Wolfpack won their third game in a row a week ago, as they bested the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 61-52, on the road. The Yellow Jackets were unable to figure out a way to score against NC State, as they shot 32.2 percent from the field in the contest. The strong defensive showing was a breath of fresh air, as the Wolfpack have relied on their strong scoring offense (74.3 ppg, 3rd in ACC) for success.

NC State has a very balanced attack as five players average 11 points or more per game. Scott Wood and C.J. Leslie are both exceptional offensive players with averages of 13 ppg or better. C.J. Williams, Lorenzo Brown, and Richard Howell all get into the mix on a consistent basis. Howell if the fourth-best rebounder in the ACC with 9.2 boards per game. Williams led the team with 15 points in last week's win vs. Georgia Tech.

Coach K has put together yet another phenomenal season so far, as his Blue Devils come in with a 21-4 overall record and just a win away from being tied for the top spot in the ACC. After its thrilling victory over UNC on Feb. 8th in the Battle of Tobacco Road, Duke picked up its second straight victory with a 73-55 triumph over the Maryland Terrapins. Although the Blue Devils shot only 38.5 percent from the floor, they held a dominant 48-33 edge in the rebounding battle to glide past the Terps. Duke is second in the ACC in scoring offense with an average of 79.7 ppg, but it ranks 10th in the league in scoring defense with an allowed average of 69.1 ppg.

The Blue Devils have found leadership from their blue chip freshman Austin Rivers. The freshman guard paces the team with 15.0 ppg on 45 percent shooting from the field. Rivers had back-to-back 20-plus point outings before he netted 11 points versus Maryland on Saturday. Seth Curry scored a game-high 19 points against the Terrapins, while Mason Plumlee added a double-double of 16 points and 10 boards. Ryan Kelly and Andre Dawkins are additional highly capable contributors for Duke, which has made it one of the most feared teams in the nation.


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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

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