It's time for Patrick to shut up and drive
Autoracing Betting Lines
05/25/2010 -
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Danica Patrick's faithful fans, "The
Danica-Maniacs," are beside themselves right now after their celeb driver
dissed her Andretti Autosport team following her less-than-stellar qualifying
run for the Indianapolis 500 this past weekend.
IndyCar's golden child put her foot in her mouth big time when she publicly
expressed her frustrations with the setup of her GoDaddy.com sponsored car
during post-qualifying interviews last Saturday at Indianapolis Motor
Speedway. Patrick's four-lap average of 224.271 m.p.h. placed her 23rd on the
starting grid, which by far was her worst qualifying effort at Indy.
"I think it was absolutely awful," Patrick said during an interview that was
broadcast over the track's public address system. "I wasn't flat the last two
laps, and I was scared to death flat the first two. And it didn't get better.
The problem is that the car can be fast. You trim it out and it accelerates,
so there's no issue there. It's just that the balance and the car itself is so
bad. We can't even trim it out to go faster. By the sounds of the trim
numbers, I think we're pretty excessive anyway.
"I'm very, very disappointed. I've never been bad here before. I've never been
outside the top 10 on a finish or qualifying, so it's not my fault. This car
is not good."
Patrick's comments led to a roar of boos from her disgruntled fans at the
famed Brickyard, which at first, blind-sided the 28-year-old driver.
"I say one confident thing out there that it's not me, and everybody boos me,"
she said. "I'm blown away...I don't know, maybe they all booed me before. I
would think that some of them have probably cheered for me before, and I'm not
a different driver than I was five years ago. I don't know if those people
were here five years ago."
Patrick has since come to her senses and been apologetic for her remarks. But
that hasn't repaired the damaged she's done.
Teammate Tony Kanaan said he spoke with Patrick in length following Saturday's
"Pole Day."
"I think she realized what she did, and we sometimes say things that we don't
want to say and we regret," Kanaan said. "She definitely needs to change her
attitude...She's not happy with herself right now."
The last thing team owner Michael Andretti needed was an outburst from
Patrick. Kanaan barely made it into the Indy 500 after crashing in each of the
two days of qualifying. He will start 32nd in the 33-car field. Andretti's
other drivers struggled as well, with Mark Andretti starting 16th, Ryan
Hunter-Reay 17th and John Andretti 28th.
Since her 2005 IndyCar rookie season, Patrick has been a fan favorite and one
of motorsports' most marketable figures. She's been pretty superb at Indy as
well, finishing third in last year's race and fourth in the '05 event.
Patrick has captured more attention lately than at any other time in her
racing career. She made her foray into stock car racing earlier this year,
competing in the ARCA Series season-opener at Daytona and then the first three
NASCAR Nationwide Series races -- Daytona, California and Las Vegas.
But Patrick is dealing with a somewhat disappointing IndyCar season so far, as
she currently sits 16th in points after finishing a career-best fifth last
year.
Has her experimentation in NASCAR cut into her IndyCar efforts? Time will
tell. Her next scheduled Nationwide start occurs the last weekend in June at
New Hampshire.
For the moment, it's time for Patrick to stop with her whining and start
focusing more on racing.
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(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
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