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Garnett leads 'Wolves over Wizards

Basketball Betting Lines

02/26/2007 - Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kevin Garnett scored 26 points and grabbed 17 rebounds as the Minnesota Timberwolves downed the Washington Wizards, 98-94, at the Target Center.

Ricky Davis deposited 27 points for the Timberwolves, who snapped a three-game losing streak. Randy Foye added 13 points and dished out eight assists for Minnesota, which beat Washington at home for the seventh consecutive time.

"They had a run, we had a run," said Garnett. "There was a point where it was kind of stagnant. Then we put a little more energy into it and we were able to grab the momentum."

Brendan Haywood's three-point play pulled Washington within three, 85-82 with 5:26 left in the contest.

Minnesota responded with jumpers by Garnett and Foye, and a free throw by Davis putting the Timberwolves back on top by eight with 2:47 left to play.

Moments later Gilbert Arenas scored on a goaltending violation and after a Minnesota offensive foul, DeShawn Stevenson drilled a triple to cut the Timberwolves lead to 95-93 with 47.3 ticks remaining.

After a Garnett miss, Davis snatched the rebound forcing Washington to foul. Mark Blount then missed both free throws but Garnett corralled another key offensive rebound and Randy Foye connected on two free throws putting the The Timberwolves ahead 97-93 with 13.1 left to play.

"We stayed close," said Wizards forward Jarvis Hayes. "It was right there for us to take, but we couldn't get the rebound off the (missed) free throw."

Stevenson registered 21 points for the Wizards, who have lost two straight games. Arenas donated 20 points for Washington, which shot just 7-of-29 from three point range.

Washington was without second-leading scorer and rebounder Caron Butler who missed the game due to back spasms. Hayes, who shot just 1-of-10 from the field, started in his place.

Trailing 36-29, Minnesota embarked on a 18-3 run to take a 47-39 lead with 1:18 left in the first half. Davis and Garnett combined for all 18 points during the stretch.

Minnesota led 51-44 at the intermission.

With the score tied at 60, the Timberwolves closed the third stanza with a 17-6 surge to take a 77-66 advantage heading into the final quarter.

Game Notes

Minnesota shot 43.7 percent while Washington shot 37.6 percent from the field...Washington has not won in Minnesota since March 7, 2000.


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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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