Canada following a path to gold
Baseball Betting Lines
07/29/2010 -
Thunder Bay, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Team Canada's quest for gold at the
World Junior Baseball Championship nearly took a detour down a dangerous road.
Luckily for them, Dalton Pompey knows his way around a diamond.
Pompey came off the bench to go 1-for-3 with two RBI including the game-winning
hit in the bottom of the ninth that capped a dramatic comeback by Canada to
defeat the Czech Republic 8-7 and advance to the quarterfinals against Italy
on Friday.
"Never in doubt," said coach Greg Hamilton after his team avoided a first-round
matchup with Chinese Taipei. "Those are the ones that you fear, you really do.
"They're the games that you have to win, that you should win."
And in the end they did, climbing back from a four-run deficit in the sixth to
win Pool B in the final game of round robin play in front of a raucous crowd at
Port Arthur Stadium.
Pompey, banged up after sliding into second base on Wednesday against Panama,
showed no ill effects of the injury after roping a liner into center to score
Philip Diedrick and sending the sell-out crowd into a frenzy.
"We had a bullet that we used," Hamilton said in reference to his center
fielder. "I was hoping we could use it a little earlier but we'll take it at
anytime."
With a crowd of nearly 3,000 fans on hand in support of the host country, few
expected the Canadians to have to fight their way back against a winless Czech
Republic team.
As it happened, the Thunder Bay faithful were treated to an early taste of the
type of playoff atmosphere expected to sweep the city and Port Arthur Stadium
when the medal round begins on Friday.
By beating the Czechs and coupled with the Netherlands' improbable come-from-
behind win over Cuba, Canada's path to the championship has become much clearer
- and perhaps, a little easier.
With coaches and players preaching nothing is a given in a tournament such as
this, the fact Canada can now navigate its way to the final without facing two-
time defending champion South Korea, Team USA or Cuba has to bode well for a
country that has won gold just once in the history of the event.
After beating the Koreans in group play and hanging in tight with the Cubans,
Canada has shown its ability to contend with the tournament's incumbent
powerhouses.
But Hamilton's not biting as his team prepares to play an Italian squad with
nothing to lose and everything to gain against the heavily-favored Canadians.
"You can't take anything for granted," Hamilton said. "We're in a quarterfinal
game with a team that's playing with house money.
"If you don't come out ready, you can lose in any given night."
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NFL Office Pool Sheets
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Sportsbooks to bet on football
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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